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Merritt Dawsley Explores the New Global Macro Policy Shift in 2025
England (PinionNewswire) —
In this macro policy outlook, Merritt Dawsley—a São Paulo–based investment management specialist with a background in finance, economics, AI, and blockchain—examines how today’s policy mix is reshaping global markets. The world has moved beyond the “post-COVID inflation shock” narrative into something more complex: slowing but sticky inflation, fragmented trade, and a powerful AI investment boom.
For portfolio builders, this means the old playbook of simply “buying the dip on rate cuts” no longer works. Instead, investors have to navigate a stop-start easing cycle, ongoing tariff shocks, and rapid technological change.
1: The Fed: A Divided Central Bank in a Slowing but Not Collapsing Economy
The Federal Reserve has already cut rates once in 2025, but its policy committee is deeply split on what comes next. Recent minutes show that many policymakers were uneasy about the October rate cut, warning it could entrench inflation and damage credibility.
Market pricing for the December meeting has become extremely volatile:
- Probabilities of a further cut have swung widely, and economists now see only modest odds of another immediate move.
- New York Fed officials have hinted that there is “room” for a near-term cut, pushing odds higher again and underscoring how finely balanced the debate is.
From Merritt Dawsley’s investment-management perspective, three points stand out:
- Higher for longer – but not forever. Forecasts now assume only a gradual move back toward a “neutral” policy rate around 3–3.25% over the next couple of years, not an aggressive easing cycle.
- Policy uncertainty is now a macro variable itself. The split between “hawks” and “doves” inside the Fed makes rate paths harder to price, increasing volatility across duration-sensitive assets.
- US inflation remains above target. IMF and other forecasts still see US inflation running above 2% into 2025, limiting how fast the Fed can ease without reigniting a credibility problem.
For investors, Merritt Dawsley emphasizes curve and sector positioning rather than simple directionality: neutral or slightly short duration, with selective exposure to rate-sensitive growth names where earnings are genuinely backed by cash flow, not just cheap money.
2: Europe and the UK: From Crisis Mode to Slow-Growth Stability
In the euro area, the inflation shock of 2022 has largely faded. ECB officials now see inflation converging back toward the 2% target, and the central bank has already lowered its key rate by around 200 bps in this easing cycle.
However, the message is clear: no rush to cut further. Economists widely expect the ECB to hold rates at current levels through at least 2026, assuming growth remains modest but not disastrous and inflation stays close to target.
In the UK, the Bank of England has already cut the policy rate several times since 2024 as inflation falls back, but its November report still stresses the need to ensure inflation returns fully to 2% and stays there.
From Merritt Dawsley’s lens:
- Europe looks like a low-growth, low-inflation, carry-driven environment, with modest return expectations but slightly improving real yields.
- Equity opportunities are more idiosyncratic, tied to export competitiveness, re-shoring trends, and niche industrial or green-transition themes, rather than broad index beta.
3: Emerging Markets and Brazil: Opportunity Under Policy and Trade Stress
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook paints a picture of a global economy that is resilient but “under strain,” with growth slightly weaker than pre-pandemic norms and risks tilted to the downside.
Within emerging markets, growth is projected to stay above advanced-economy levels, but trade tensions and tariff shocks—especially from the US—are now a central macro risk. These tariffs are forecast to drag global growth down and push inflation up, shaving roughly half a percentage point off expected global growth and raising recession risk in the US.
For a macro analyst based in São Paulo like Merritt Dawsley, this has specific implications:
- Brazil and LatAm assets stand to benefit when the Fed eventually normalizes policy, but they are also vulnerable to swings in global risk sentiment driven by US trade and tariff headlines.
- Local central banks that front-loaded their hiking cycles now have more room to cut, but must balance growth support with the risk of capital outflows if US yields back up again.
- Commodity-linked currencies may remain volatile yet structurally attractive if global supply disruptions and green-transition demand keep real commodity prices supported.
Merritt Dawsley highlights that country selection and FX management are more important than ever: the macro regime rewards investors who can differentiate between EMs with credible monetary frameworks and those without.
4: AI and Blockchain: Policy Shock Absorbers and New Risk Channels
One of the most overlooked macro stories of 2025 is how artificial intelligence investment is reshaping aggregate demand. The IMF has noted that a powerful surge in AI-related capex has helped shield the US from a sharper slowdown, keeping growth notably stronger than in many peers—though potentially at the cost of higher near-term inflation.
This is precisely where Merritt Dawsley’s background in AI and blockchain becomes relevant to macro:
1: AI as a cyclical stabilizer.
Massive investment flows into AI data centers, chips, and software create a capex floor for the business cycle, offsetting weakness in more traditional sectors.
2: Delayed productivity vs. early inflation.
If productivity gains from AI arrive more slowly than the spending, you get strong demand and tight labor markets without immediate efficiency gains, keeping core inflation sticky and complicating central-bank easing paths.
3: Blockchain and market structure.
Parallel to AI, blockchain-based financial infrastructure is maturing. As institutional adoption grows, tokenized assets and 24/7 settlement could gradually change how liquidity, collateral, and even monetary transmission work, though regulators are only beginning to adapt.
In Merritt Dawsley’s view, AI and blockchain together form a “structural macro shock”: they raise potential growth and rewire financial plumbing, but they also inject new uncertainty into inflation dynamics and capital flows.
5: Investment Playbook: How Merritt Dawsley Views the Current Macro Regime
Bringing these macro and policy threads together, Merritt Dawsley frames the current environment as a transition from emergency policy to a constrained, data-dependent normalization:
1: Rates:
- Fed: slow, uncertain easing with high internal disagreement.
- ECB / BoE: cautious, with Europe closer to a stable low-inflation equilibrium.
2: Growth and inflation:
- Global growth subdued but not collapsing, with downside risks from tariffs, policy uncertainty, and geopolitics.
- Inflation trending lower globally, but US inflation still above target, giving central banks limited room to make policy mistakes.
3: Technological shock:
- AI and related digital infrastructure are supporting growth and equity valuations, particularly in the US, while also damping the usual negative feedback from tighter policy.
Given this, Merritt Dawsley’s high-level strategic principles are:
1. Favor quality over pure beta.
In both developed and emerging markets, emphasize companies and sovereigns with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and credible institutions.
2. Use duration selectively.
With the Fed divided and inflation still above target, intermediate duration and barbell strategies may offer better risk-reward than aggressive long-duration bets on rapid easing.
3. Lean into real assets and tech together.
Combine AI-linked equities and digital-infrastructure plays with selective exposure to real assets and inflation hedges, recognizing that policy mistakes or tariff escalations can still re-ignite inflation.
4. Respect policy risk.
Tariffs, geopolitical shocks, and regulatory moves around AI and blockchain are not tail risks—they are central drivers of return distributions.
In short, Merritt Dawsley sees today’s macro landscape as a multi-dimensional policy puzzle: central banks trying to normalize without triggering recession, governments weaponizing trade policy, and technology reshaping the growth and inflation outlook. For investors, the winners will be those who can connect macro policy, technological disruption, and disciplined portfolio construction into a single, coherent framework.
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Thessaly Wright Examines the Structural Ascendancy of Private Capital and the Repricing of Illiquidity in a Post-Zero-Rate World
New York, USA
Private capital has quietly crossed a threshold. Over the past eighteen months, global allocations to private equity, private credit, and real assets have surged past record levels, even as public market volatility and monetary tightening have forced a wholesale reassessment of risk across every traditional asset class. Thessaly Wright contends that this inflection point is neither surprising nor temporary. It marks the culmination of a structural realignment years in the making — one in which the institutions that control the largest pools of long-duration capital have collectively concluded that the old equilibrium between public and private markets no longer holds. The investment industry, Thessaly Wright argues, is now entering a phase where illiquidity itself must be repriced, where operational value creation supersedes financial engineering, and where the architecture of institutional portfolio construction is being rewritten from the ground up.
The End of Free Capital and the Illiquidity Premium Reset
For more than a decade, the zero-interest-rate environment compressed risk premiums to historically anomalous levels, flooding private markets with capital that often prioritized deployment speed over disciplined underwriting. Thessaly Wright argues that the abrupt normalization of monetary policy did not merely tighten financial conditions — it exposed a generation of private equity vintages built on leverage arbitrage rather than genuine operational value creation. The repricing now underway across buyout, growth equity, and venture portfolios represents what she characterizes as a long-overdue reckoning that will ultimately separate structurally sound platforms from those whose returns were merely a derivative of accommodative central bank policy.
Thessaly Wright notes that return dispersion across private capital managers has widened to levels not observed since 2008, creating a sharp bifurcation between top-quartile operators capable of driving earnings growth through operational improvement and lower-tier sponsors dependent on financial engineering. For institutional allocators, vintage diversification alone no longer constitutes sufficient risk management. What is required, Thessaly Wright contends, is a granular, thesis-driven approach to manager selection that privileges operational DNA over historical IRR figures inflated by a now-extinct rate environment.
Private Credit and the Disintermediation of Traditional Lending
Among the most significant structural shifts reshaping the private capital ecosystem is the rapid ascendancy of private credit as a mainstream institutional allocation. The retreat of regulated banks from middle-market lending, accelerated by Basel III capital requirements and heightened macro-prudential oversight, has created a durable supply-demand imbalance that Thessaly Wright identifies as one of the most compelling secular opportunities in contemporary finance. Direct lending, mezzanine, and asset-backed strategies have collectively absorbed functions once performed by the traditional banking sector, and this disintermediation shows no signs of reversal.
Thessaly Wright emphasizes that the maturation of private credit carries implications extending well beyond yield enhancement. As institutional allocation scales from a niche sleeve to a core portfolio building block, questions of liquidity management, mark-to-market transparency, and systemic interconnectedness demand increasingly sophisticated governance frameworks. The capital efficiency gains must be weighed against structural illiquidity and valuation opacity. For Thessaly Wright, the investors best positioned to capture this opportunity are those who approach private credit not as a fixed-income substitute but as a distinct risk-return proposition requiring dedicated underwriting infrastructure.
Sovereign Wealth, Pension Reallocation, and the New Institutional Architecture
The third dimension of this transformation is the accelerating reallocation of sovereign wealth funds and public pension systems toward private market strategies. Thessaly Wright observes that sovereign investors in the Gulf states, Southeast Asia, and Northern Europe have systematically increased target allocations to private equity, infrastructure, and real assets, driven by a recognition that public market beta alone cannot deliver the actuarial returns required to meet long-term liabilities. This institutional migration is not a tactical trade but a generational portfolio restructuring altering the supply-demand dynamics of private capital fundraising.
Thessaly Wright points to the growing concentration of commitments among a shrinking number of mega-fund platforms as a source of asymmetric risk the industry has yet to fully reckon with. This concentration dynamic risks creating a self-reinforcing cycle in which size becomes a proxy for quality, ultimately eroding the competitive ecosystem that has historically driven private capital outperformance. The response, in her assessment, lies in more sophisticated co-investment architectures and sector-specialized vehicles that allow institutional investors to access differentiated deal flow. As Head of Global Private Capital at Ofek Kesef Asset Management, Thessaly Wright has been instrumental in advancing these frameworks, constructing bespoke private capital programs that bridge institutional scale requirements and the agility of specialist investment teams.
Conviction in a Market That Rewards Precision
The era of passive private market exposure delivering outsized returns has definitively ended. What has emerged, Thessaly Wright maintains, is an environment that rewards conviction, operational rigor, and the intellectual honesty to distinguish genuine value creation from the residual effects of a monetary regime that no longer exists. For Thessaly Wright, this is not an aspiration but the daily practice of navigating a market that has never been more demanding, or more rich with possibility, for those prepared to meet it on its own terms.
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Vianne Mercer Analyzes the Recalibration of Cross-Border Capital Flows Amid a Fragmented Global Order in 2025
New York, USA
As the architecture of global finance enters a period of profound recalibration, few observers have articulated the scale of the shift as precisely as Vianne Mercer, a cross-border investment specialist and CFA charterholder at Ofek Kesef Asset Management. In a landscape increasingly defined by monetary policy divergence, geopolitical fragmentation, and accelerating technological disruption, Vianne Mercer contends that the traditional frameworks governing international capital allocation are no longer adequate. The paradigm shift now unfolding, she argues, demands a fundamentally different approach to risk assessment, portfolio construction, and the very definition of what constitutes a resilient investment strategy in the years ahead.
Interest Rate Divergence and the Erosion of Conventional Allocation Models
The post-pandemic monetary landscape has produced an unprecedented divergence among the world’s major central banks, creating a complex web of asymmetric risk that reverberates through every asset class. While the Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious posture on rate normalization, the People’s Bank of China has pursued aggressive easing to counteract deflationary pressures, and the European Central Bank continues to navigate a narrow corridor between fiscal interplay and inflation containment. According to Vianne Mercer, this divergence represents far more than a cyclical adjustment. It signals a structural fracture in the synchronized monetary regime that defined the previous decade, one that compels institutional investors to abandon static allocation models in favor of dynamic, multi-regime frameworks.
The implications for cross-border capital flows are significant. Vianne Mercer observes that the widening interest rate differentials have triggered a liquidity stratification effect, wherein capital no longer gravitates toward the highest nominal yield but instead seeks jurisdictions offering the most favorable risk-adjusted real return after accounting for currency volatility and regulatory friction. This recalibration is particularly evident in the fixed-income markets, where traditional sovereign debt hierarchies are being quietly dismantled. Institutional allocation patterns that once followed predictable corridors between developed markets are now dispersing across frontier and emerging-market instruments, driven by a search for capital efficiency that transcends conventional geographic boundaries.
Technological Catalysts Reshaping Portfolio Intelligence
The integration of artificial intelligence into investment research and portfolio analytics has moved well beyond the experimental phase, and Vianne Mercer identifies this technological evolution as the second critical pillar of the current transformation. Machine learning models capable of processing vast arrays of macroeconomic indicators, sentiment data, and alternative datasets in real time are fundamentally altering the speed and precision with which cross-border investment decisions are made. For family offices and high-net-worth advisory practices, the adoption of these tools is no longer optional but essential to maintaining competitive positioning within an increasingly data-saturated environment.
Vianne Mercer emphasizes, however, that technology alone does not constitute a strategy. The true competitive advantage, she maintains, lies in the ability to synthesize algorithmic output with deep contextual understanding of client-specific objectives, tax considerations, and multi-jurisdictional regulatory requirements. Drawing on extensive experience advising international families across both Asian and American markets, Vianne Mercer notes that the most effective application of AI-driven analytics occurs when it augments, rather than replaces, the nuanced judgment required to navigate cross-border wealth structures. The human element, specifically the capacity to interpret macro-prudential policy shifts through the lens of individual client circumstances, remains the irreducible core of sound advisory practice.
Geopolitical Realignment and the New Geography of Capital
Perhaps the most consequential force reshaping global capital flows is the accelerating fragmentation of the geopolitical order itself. The bifurcation of technology supply chains between Western and Chinese spheres of influence, the proliferation of industrial policy regimes across both developed and developing economies, and the weaponization of financial infrastructure through sanctions and capital controls have collectively produced a world in which supply chain resilience has become as critical a consideration as return optimization. Vianne Mercer argues that this geopolitical realignment is not a temporary disruption but a secular shift that will define the investment landscape for at least the next decade.
Within this context, Vianne Mercer points to the growing importance of what she terms “jurisdictional optionality,” the strategic capacity to deploy capital across multiple regulatory environments while maintaining the flexibility to rebalance in response to rapidly evolving political conditions. For global citizens managing wealth across borders, the ability to anticipate regulatory divergence and position portfolios accordingly represents a decisive edge. This requires not only technical proficiency in cross-border tax coordination and compliance but also a forward-looking understanding of how geopolitical tensions translate into concrete shifts in asset pricing, currency dynamics, and market access.
The reconfiguration of global capital flows is further compounded by the emergence of new financial corridors linking the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and select African markets to established Western capital pools. Vianne Mercer observes that these corridors are being shaped as much by bilateral political agreements and sovereign wealth fund strategies as by traditional market forces. For advisors serving internationally mobile clients, recognizing and positioning for these structural realignments is essential to delivering outcomes that reflect the true complexity of a fragmented global order.
Navigating the New Paradigm
The convergence of monetary policy divergence, technological acceleration, and geopolitical fragmentation has rendered the old playbook for cross-border investment management obsolete. Vianne Mercer maintains that the professionals and institutions best positioned to thrive in this environment will be those who embrace adaptive, multi-dimensional strategies grounded in rigorous macroeconomic analysis and an intimate understanding of client-specific global circumstances. As the architecture of international finance continues to evolve at an accelerating pace, the capacity to synthesize complexity into actionable insight will distinguish the most effective practitioners from the rest. For Vianne Mercer, this is not merely a professional imperative but the defining challenge of a generation of wealth advisors tasked with guiding capital through an era of unprecedented structural transformation.
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Stely Figueroa, Mrs. Seattle US Nation 2026 and the Power of Purposeful Beauty
Davie, FL
Stely Ruiz-Figueroa does not speak about beauty as something borrowed from a camera or confined to a runway. She speaks about it as something earned, discovered, and lived. As Mrs. Seattle US Nation 2026, her presence in the modeling and pageantry world is shaped less by spectacle and more by substance, guided by faith, humility, and a steady commitment to authenticity.

Although her professional modeling career spans just over a year, Stely’s relationship with the industry began much earlier. As a teenager, she took her first steps through Barbizon, where she was introduced to modeling as a vehicle for confidence rather than comparison. At a time when self-doubt clouded her sense of worth, modeling became a quiet act of courage, a way to challenge insecurities and redefine beauty on her own terms. Returning to the industry later in life, she did so with clarity and gratitude, bringing a deeper purpose to every opportunity. This chapter, she says, feels especially meaningful because it is rooted in self-acceptance rather than validation.

For Stely, modeling is not about perfection or appearances alone. She views it as a platform to reflect confidence, kindness, and humility, qualities she believes are often overlooked in an image-driven industry. While the spotlight can easily narrow the definition of worth, she uses her presence to remind others that value is not measured by a number, a title, or a photograph. True beauty, in her eyes, is revealed through resilience, character, and the willingness to uplift others while continuing to grow through life’s challenges.
Her title as Mrs. Seattle US Nation 2026 is one she carries with intention. Rather than treating it as a destination, she sees it as a responsibility and an open door to inspire self-love and positivity. She approaches each engagement with gratitude, grounded in the belief that success arrives when one remains kind, humble, and true to oneself. In March 2026, she will take the next step in her pageant journey as she competes for her state at the Miss West Coast US Nation Pageant, a milestone she views not simply as a competition, but as another opportunity to lead with purpose and grace.
Looking ahead, Stely envisions a future rich with creativity and intention. In five years, she hopes to expand beyond modeling into acting and writing, with aspirations of becoming a published author and contributing to film and television projects that align with her values. Yet, career milestones are not her sole focus. She is deeply committed to personal growth and to living as the woman she believes God created her to be, embracing opportunities with humility while sharing life with the love of her life.
At the heart of her platform is a simple but powerful message: true beauty comes from within. Through her work, she seeks to inspire others to believe in themselves, to stand confidently in who they are, and to understand that inner light naturally shines outward when nurtured by self-love. Whether on a runway or in everyday life, she wants others to feel seen, encouraged, and empowered.
When asked about the runways she dreams of walking, Stely mentions Miami and Paris with enthusiasm, but quickly adds that location is secondary to purpose. Every runway, wherever it may be, is an opportunity to bring passion, authenticity, and connection into the space, growing not only as a model but as a woman rooted in intention.
She is also determined to challenge long-standing stereotypes within modeling and pageantry. For Stely, these worlds are not superficial arenas defined solely by appearance. They are spaces where confidence, discipline, and inner beauty can coexist with ambition. She hopes to show that a titleholder can be purpose-driven and compassionate, lifting others while remaining grounded in her own truth.
What ultimately sets Stely Figueroa apart is the depth of her journey. Shaped by life’s tragedies and struggles, she has chosen perseverance over bitterness, faith over fear, and family above all else. With God as the center and foundation of her life, she stands today feeling worthy, successful, and deeply grateful. Her story is not one of effortless triumph, but of steady steps forward, a reminder that even in the hardest moments, persistence can carry dreams within reach. Through her journey, she invites others to keep going, to believe in themselves, and to trust that they may be closer to their dreams than they realize. Support Stely and follow her on Instagram @stelygram. Photos in this article were captured by: Hashtag Photography LLC.
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